Oscars watch 2013: and our Academy award nominees are ...
The
Master for best picture? Jennifer Lawrence for best actress? In the
wake of the Venice and Toronto film festivals, here are our contenders
for next year's Academy awards
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To crown the king ...
The Master director Paul Thomas Anderson, producer Harvey Weinstein and
actor Joaquin Phoenix. Photograph: Elisabetta A Villa/WireImage
So the dust has settled and the red carpets have been stashed in
the garage. Venice and Toronto are over for another year. Which means
Oscar is coming a-knocking. The fallout from those festivals, plus last-minute release-date re-jigging, affords a clearer-eyed take on what's likely to bring home the bacon in the new year.
Heading for awards glory? ... Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper in David O Russell's Silver Linings Playbook
Terrence Malick is never Oscar bait, as confirmed by Venice's other big premiere, To the Wonder.
A smattering of respectful nods – cinematography, editing, potentially
even supporting actress – are possible, but if there was any awards push
in the decision to open at Venice, it doesn't appear to have paid
dividends. The most macho clap on the back at Tiff went to David O Russell's Silver Linings Playbook,
whose bagging of the audience award (previous recipients: Slumdog
Millionaire and The King's Speech) should be taken as an augury of
awards glory. As well as a best picture, best director and best adapted
screenplay nods, Jennifer Lawrence has an unexpectedly good shot at best
actress. Supporting actor Robert De Niro looks more likelier than lead Bradley Cooper.
There was also a lot of fond feeling in town for Argo, Ben Affleck's third film as director, in which he plays a real-life CIA agent sent to smuggle six Americans out of Tehran during the hostage crisis. It's a crowd-pleasing box-ticker, classily done, and looks increasingly likely to do better than its aesthetic ancestor, Frost/Nixon. A few films eagerly anticipated at Toronto met with muted enough reception to mean that may struggle in the running. The polarising Cloud Atlas is one of them, though a best picture nod isn't impossible. Likewise Mike Newell's Great Expectations, and, to some extent, Derek Cianfrance's The Place Beyond the Pines, which might wind up being too grungy or tricksy to echo the critical love for Blue Valentine, or for Drive. Anna Karenina, though a little unloved this side of the pond, was much more rapturously received over there, too. The Impossible, the Ewan MacGregor/ Naomi Watts tsunami movie, won raves. Buzzing round the periphery were Frances Ha, Much Ado and What Maisie Knew.
Hyde Park on Hudson may have been positioned as this year's King's Speech, but it might just be too on-the-button to repeat Tom Hooper's trick. He's back in the race with Les Misérables, which seems likely to vie with The Master and Silver Linings Playbook for most nominations. Will Anne Hathaway be touted as best actress or best supporting? In either category, she must be the one to beat.
Tough competition ... will Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained get an Academy nod?
But there are a handful of key pictures yet to screen. First is Lincoln, Steven Spielberg's biopic starring Daniel Day-Lewis, who had looked to be lock-in for best actor, but the slightly soupy trailer casts conversion on other nods in slight doubt. Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino's slavery western, must come out of the race with a brace of nominations. Zero Dark Thirty is Kathryn Bigelow's killing Bin Laden film, about which there is slightly muddled buzz. Gambit may look like the new Coen brothers' film, but they just scripted, rather than directed. Promised Land is Gus van Sant's
anti-fracking film, starring Matt Damon; Flight a much-ballyhooed
Robert Zemeckis vehicle for Denzel Washington. That film closes the New
York film festival next month. Ang Lee's Life of Pi, the last big hitter, opens proceedings.
Tender journey ... could Michael Haneke's Amour cross over from foreign language into the best picture category?
The crossover of Amour into the likely running for gongs outside of foreign language is curious; the Academy knows Michael Haneke
is the real deal – his producing such an unconventionally tender film
throws up a great opportunity to show it. Mads Mikkelsen is a familiar
name and face on account of his work on Bond flick Casino Royale;
rewarding him for his work as a man accused of paedophilia in Thomas
Vinterberg's The Hunt
would complete the Cannes genuflection. Two superficially similar
starry American flicks that premiered there have curiously divergent
fates. Lawless, out in the UK earlier this month, seems to be going nowhere in terms of Oscars. Killing Them Softly,
which Peter Bradshaw today upgraded to five stars from his original
four, might sneak through with a surprisingly good haul. It's out here
today – American punters will have to wait another two months; a curious
strategy in terms of its Obama-riffing topicality, but one that
definitely suggests it has awards in its crosshairs.
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, this year's Ryan Gosling for his turns in Looper, The Dark Knight Rises, Premium Rush and Lincoln, would be lucky to get a supporting actor nomination for the latter (presumably Tommy Lee Jones will be in there, especially if the Academy feels bad for sending away middle-aged sexual dysfunction film Hope Springs home empty-handed). If there were justice, Seth MacFarlane would join him in that same category for his work on Ted. But it seems unlikely, and not just because it would tread on Andy Serkis's toes so much. Yet the Academy would show a sense of humour by giving the summer's filthiest hit a best original screenplay nod.
So here's our tips: not what we think should be nominated, but what we think will be. Feel free to tell us where we're wrong …
Argo
The Master
Lincoln
The Impossible
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Amour
Cloud Atlas
Les Misérables
Wildcards: Trouble with the Curve; Hyde Park on Hudson; Killing Them Softly, Holy Motors
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Wildcards: Ben Affleck, Argo; Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty; Gus van Sant, Promised Land; Leos Carax, Holy Motors
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Russell Crowe, Les Misérables
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
Wildcards: Mads Mikkelsen, The Hunt; Michael Shannon, The Iceman; Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Amy Adams, Trouble with the Curve
Wildcards: Helen Hunt, The Sessions; Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha; Elle Fanning, Ginger & Rosa; Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
James Gandolfini, Killing Them Softly
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Wildcards: Michael Fassbender, Prometheus; Ben Mendelson, Killing Them Softly
Helena Bonham Carter, Les Misérables
Amy Adams, The Master
Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson
Maggie Smith, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,
Wildcards: Maggie Smith, Quartet; Frances McDormand, Promised Land; Octavia Spencer, Smashed
The Impossible
Arbitrage
Django Unchained
Gambit,
Wildcards: Ted; Moonrise Kingdom; Promised Land; Frances Ha; Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Anna Karenina
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Wildcards: Lincoln; The Hobbit; The Sessionshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/film/filmblog/2012/sep/21/oscars-watch-2013-academy-award-nominees
Key conclusions
Its rapturous reception at both festivals has cemented The Master in pole position. A best picture nomination is a lock-in, likewise director, original screenplay, score and cinematography. The unknown is how the Weinsteins choose to maximise their acting award potential. Positioning Joaquin Phoenix as lead and Philip Seymour Hoffman as support looks likely, unless they feel a main category smackdown is irresistible. As with There Will Be Blood (and its 2009/2010 rival No Country for Old Men), this is a major player that's unable to expand its nominations slate with a ton of female acting nods. Amy Adams is a possible for best supporting actress, just as she could convert her role in Clint Eastwood's Trouble with the Curve into a leading nomination.
Heading for awards glory? ... Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper in David O Russell's Silver Linings Playbook
Terrence Malick is never Oscar bait, as confirmed by Venice's other big premiere, To the Wonder.
A smattering of respectful nods – cinematography, editing, potentially
even supporting actress – are possible, but if there was any awards push
in the decision to open at Venice, it doesn't appear to have paid
dividends. The most macho clap on the back at Tiff went to David O Russell's Silver Linings Playbook,
whose bagging of the audience award (previous recipients: Slumdog
Millionaire and The King's Speech) should be taken as an augury of
awards glory. As well as a best picture, best director and best adapted
screenplay nods, Jennifer Lawrence has an unexpectedly good shot at best
actress. Supporting actor Robert De Niro looks more likelier than lead Bradley Cooper.There was also a lot of fond feeling in town for Argo, Ben Affleck's third film as director, in which he plays a real-life CIA agent sent to smuggle six Americans out of Tehran during the hostage crisis. It's a crowd-pleasing box-ticker, classily done, and looks increasingly likely to do better than its aesthetic ancestor, Frost/Nixon. A few films eagerly anticipated at Toronto met with muted enough reception to mean that may struggle in the running. The polarising Cloud Atlas is one of them, though a best picture nod isn't impossible. Likewise Mike Newell's Great Expectations, and, to some extent, Derek Cianfrance's The Place Beyond the Pines, which might wind up being too grungy or tricksy to echo the critical love for Blue Valentine, or for Drive. Anna Karenina, though a little unloved this side of the pond, was much more rapturously received over there, too. The Impossible, the Ewan MacGregor/ Naomi Watts tsunami movie, won raves. Buzzing round the periphery were Frances Ha, Much Ado and What Maisie Knew.
Hyde Park on Hudson may have been positioned as this year's King's Speech, but it might just be too on-the-button to repeat Tom Hooper's trick. He's back in the race with Les Misérables, which seems likely to vie with The Master and Silver Linings Playbook for most nominations. Will Anne Hathaway be touted as best actress or best supporting? In either category, she must be the one to beat.
The unknowns
Tough competition ... will Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained get an Academy nod?
But there are a handful of key pictures yet to screen. First is Lincoln, Steven Spielberg's biopic starring Daniel Day-Lewis, who had looked to be lock-in for best actor, but the slightly soupy trailer casts conversion on other nods in slight doubt. Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino's slavery western, must come out of the race with a brace of nominations. Zero Dark Thirty is Kathryn Bigelow's killing Bin Laden film, about which there is slightly muddled buzz. Gambit may look like the new Coen brothers' film, but they just scripted, rather than directed. Promised Land is Gus van Sant's
anti-fracking film, starring Matt Damon; Flight a much-ballyhooed
Robert Zemeckis vehicle for Denzel Washington. That film closes the New
York film festival next month. Ang Lee's Life of Pi, the last big hitter, opens proceedings.The curios
A couple of Sundance favourites are still going strong. Beasts of the Southern Wild is an easy film to root for and a shoo-in for picture, actress and cinematography nominations, while The Sessions, in which John Hawkes's 38-year-old virgin, who spends most of his time in an iron lung, hires Helen Hunt to pop his cherry, can't fail but bag at least a couple. There are some quirks emerging which should keep the contenders on their toes, too. You'd be foolish to dismiss early buzz in the US for geriatric Brit flicks The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Quartet; the Yanks' Downton-accelerated love for Maggie Smith – an ensemble player in both – should not be underestimated. But if she is out of the picture, and Amour's Emmanuelle Riva too, then the actress nominees are going to be unprecedently youthful (Elle Fanning was 13 when she filmed Ginger and Rosa; Jennifer Lawrence is still pretty young, Beasts' lead was six at the time of the shoot).
Tender journey ... could Michael Haneke's Amour cross over from foreign language into the best picture category?
The crossover of Amour into the likely running for gongs outside of foreign language is curious; the Academy knows Michael Haneke
is the real deal – his producing such an unconventionally tender film
throws up a great opportunity to show it. Mads Mikkelsen is a familiar
name and face on account of his work on Bond flick Casino Royale;
rewarding him for his work as a man accused of paedophilia in Thomas
Vinterberg's The Hunt
would complete the Cannes genuflection. Two superficially similar
starry American flicks that premiered there have curiously divergent
fates. Lawless, out in the UK earlier this month, seems to be going nowhere in terms of Oscars. Killing Them Softly,
which Peter Bradshaw today upgraded to five stars from his original
four, might sneak through with a surprisingly good haul. It's out here
today – American punters will have to wait another two months; a curious
strategy in terms of its Obama-riffing topicality, but one that
definitely suggests it has awards in its crosshairs.Joseph Gordon-Levitt, this year's Ryan Gosling for his turns in Looper, The Dark Knight Rises, Premium Rush and Lincoln, would be lucky to get a supporting actor nomination for the latter (presumably Tommy Lee Jones will be in there, especially if the Academy feels bad for sending away middle-aged sexual dysfunction film Hope Springs home empty-handed). If there were justice, Seth MacFarlane would join him in that same category for his work on Ted. But it seems unlikely, and not just because it would tread on Andy Serkis's toes so much. Yet the Academy would show a sense of humour by giving the summer's filthiest hit a best original screenplay nod.
So here's our tips: not what we think should be nominated, but what we think will be. Feel free to tell us where we're wrong …
Best picture
Silver Linings PlaybookArgo
The Master
Lincoln
The Impossible
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Amour
Cloud Atlas
Les Misérables
Wildcards: Trouble with the Curve; Hyde Park on Hudson; Killing Them Softly, Holy Motors
Best director
David O Russell, Silver Linings PlaybookPaul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Wildcards: Ben Affleck, Argo; Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty; Gus van Sant, Promised Land; Leos Carax, Holy Motors
Best actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, LincolnJoaquin Phoenix, The Master
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Russell Crowe, Les Misérables
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
Wildcards: Mads Mikkelsen, The Hunt; Michael Shannon, The Iceman; Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Best actress
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern WildAnne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Amy Adams, Trouble with the Curve
Wildcards: Helen Hunt, The Sessions; Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha; Elle Fanning, Ginger & Rosa; Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Best supporting actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The MasterJames Gandolfini, Killing Them Softly
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Wildcards: Michael Fassbender, Prometheus; Ben Mendelson, Killing Them Softly
Best supporting actress
Sally Field, LincolnHelena Bonham Carter, Les Misérables
Amy Adams, The Master
Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson
Maggie Smith, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,
Wildcards: Maggie Smith, Quartet; Frances McDormand, Promised Land; Octavia Spencer, Smashed
Best original screenplay
The MasterThe Impossible
Arbitrage
Django Unchained
Gambit,
Wildcards: Ted; Moonrise Kingdom; Promised Land; Frances Ha; Zero Dark Thirty
Best adapted screenplay
ArgoSilver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Anna Karenina
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Wildcards: Lincoln; The Hobbit; The Sessionshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/film/filmblog/2012/sep/21/oscars-watch-2013-academy-award-nominees
